New technology for improved storm risk assessment in the Caribbean

The effects of tropical storms on caribbean island satates are reviewed and their potential for destruction from coastal flloding and extreme winds are highlighted in the context of sea-level rise and increasingly dense coastal development. the Caribbean disaster mitigation project (CDMP) is applying new tecnology in modelling these effects. The model used by CDMP relies on a generic dabase structure using available 'off the shelf' data sources such as satellite imagery and the National Hurricane Center dabase.The model provides probable maximun values for wind at surface and for still-water elevation and wave height at the coastline.Applications in the areas of land use planning design of coastal works and disaster preparedness are presented. The results of this model compare favourably to those of existing storm surge models such as the WHAFIS model of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the SLOSH model of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) (AU)

Natural disasters : Linking economics and the environment with a vengeance

An often overlooked aspect in the linkage between economic development and environment is the vulnerability of development to environmental extremes, or natural hazards. The impact of a natural disaster on the economy of a small developing country can be devasting. Jamaica's GDP for calendar 1988 fell by 2

as against an expected growth of 5

. Settlements and their services, basic infrastructure, productive facilities, and even the natural resource base can sustain severe damage, forcing the country to divert scarce funds to their rehabilitation. The foreign exchange earning capacity of export agriculture and tourism can be wiped out for a substantial period, at a time when the country needs to acquire goods and sevices from abroad as inputs for the rehabilitation effort. Countries in the region, and their international development assistance agencies continue to formulate development plans and investment projects without due consideration to the risks posed by natural hazards. Yet the recent disasters that affected the region serve as a reminder that sustainable development cannot be attained without mitigating hazard risk perception and response. Significant progress can be made towards this end by including hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis in the development planning process, and by expanding the project appraisal process to include a cost-benefit analysis for investment in appropriate loss reduction and mitigation measures